Taxes and Investing
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) is the attempt by Congress to reduce the economic dislocation caused by the current pandemic. Taxes play a key role in the Act, along with several economic stimulus policies.
Normally a new tax law requires time to figure out all the details. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is still looking for clarifications on several issues, some of which are addressed in the CARES Act. COVID-19 had pushed economic decline into overdrive. The American economy has never declined at such a pace. Businesses and individuals went from good economic conditions to millions unemployed and many businesses forced to close. A draconian stimulus package was required.
The CARES Act is $2.2 trillion of federal stimulus. With no time to iron out the details, rumors are flying. Normally reputable sources of information are struggling to get facts out. Misinformation is rampant. This post, along with the accompanying Facebook Live event, will outline the facts as they currently stand. The facts might change is some situations. I will correct those errors in this post periodically so you have a reliable resource. There are many instances where the only answer is: I don’t know. Because nobody does, even the people in charge of the programs.Read More
Rules of thumb are an easy way to quickly see where you stand financially. Once you reach 25X your spending in liquid net worth (the 4% rule presented as a multiple of spending) you are assumed to have enough to retire under the 4% rule, regardless your age.
However, as we are seeing with the current market turmoil, the simple rule of thumb has one fatal flaw. If you reached your 25X goal a few months ago and decided this was the time to step away from traditional labor, you now face a withdrawal rate from your index funds a third higher than expected. This will reduce the account value early in the distribution phase, lowering the total amount you can get from the investment over your lifetime.
Another rule of thumb is to keep 6 months of spending in cash in case you become unemployed. Under a normal job loss or economic decline this would be a reasonable policy to follow. Unemployment insurance can provide additional cushion to the 6-month cash reserve.
Black Swan events (unexpected negative economic events such as the housing crisis or pandemic) throw the whole rule of thumb out the window. Black Swan events do not happen often, but they do occur every decade or so. Looking back at U.S. history, it seems something always happens every decade to knock the markets lower and slow economic activity. The 2010s are the only decade to avoid that fate and 2020 seems to be making up for the oversight.Read More
There is an adage on Wall Street many have repeated over the years and more so in the last month:
BUY THE DIP
What so many forget is another Wall Street adage similar to the first:
BUYING THE DIP WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T
I have warned this is not over yet so don’t get too excited about buying the first decline.
My opinion is unchanged. Unless something drastic changes, the events put in motion will play out until their logical end (the end all panics end in).
Most readers of my blog have never experienced a prolonged decline in many markets at once. It has been 12 long years since things were really ugly. This will be the first REAL test of the FI and FIRE communities. Unfortunately, most leaders in these communities have also never experienced a real market panic when they had meaningful money invested.Read More
Two major tax increases are about to crush middle class Americans. The first tax increase has already been passed into law and will soon go into effect. The second massive tax increase is more sinister. The amount of the increase has yet to be determined, but we can get a good idea how much will be pried from your wallet if you don’t take steps to defend your wealth.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) lowered taxes for the vast majority of individuals and regular corporations. There were a few losers. Taxpayers with high state and local taxes (SALT) found their deductions declining faster than rates fell causing a sharp pain behind their left eye on April 15th.
Other taxpayers feeling the pain of a tax increase include truckers, sales people, artists and others with work related expenses. Unreimbursed employee business expenses were eliminated. Truckers (and others) no longer can deduct their work expenses. The TCJA hurt a large number of hard working Americans. Even the mortgage interest deduction was slightly curtailed. Not as many felt that sting, but all the same, the TCJA was uneven in reducing taxpayer liabilities.
Regular corporations saw the biggest benefit. Corporations now have a flat 21% tax rate. Except for corporations with less than $50,000 in profits, this was a tax cut.Read More
Since most roofers are good at roofing and poor at keeping accurate records, you have a powerful side gig opportunity to make a difference in your community while earning above average income.
All business eventually need funding. Your ability to read financial statements allows you to consult with clients at a higher level and to gain desired result. You can handle the raw data entry if you want or farm it out to a bookkeeper. Regardless, you lead and give directions.
Done right, you and your clients will profit.Read More
I don’t know if Warren Buffett could actually deliver on his promise of 50% annual gains. I do know that arbitrage is an excellent way to spike your investment returns.
A Peter Lynch style review of Altria reveals massive unrealized value. It is easy to forget Altria is more than cigarettes. There is a dash of wine in the portfolio, non-combustible tobacco products, Juul, Anheuser Busch inbev NV (BUD), Cronos (CRON) and on! Nicotine Pouches in the product line as well.
Let’s take an impossibly negative approach to Altria and see if the company survives or is loaded with large hidden treasures.
For starters, let’s value Juul at zero. I know, I know. It is worth at least something, but we take no prisoners around here when we tally up a business’s valuation under a worst case scenario.Read More
In 1968 Nick Murray had to sell investments the hard way. He met most clients in their home. The tool of choice was the mutual fund. Most people he sat with were hard working people, but unsophisticated investors. Fee-based advisors were rare in those days for the small accounts families had. Fees were high and people were risk adverse. To top it off, the market was having bouts of volatility, suffering a noticeable decline even to those who didn’t follow the market on a regular basis.
It was in this environment Nick Murray had to convince his clients and potential clients the best course of action for them. Investing in mutual funds came at a steep cost. Loads (aka sales fees) were as high as 8.75%. 91.25% of your money went to work right out of the gate trying to get back to the even water mark.
Young families had to consider equities for at least a portion of their portfolio if they were ever to have enough money for a comfortable retirement, and Nick Murray knew it. The high fees were one issue; the market another. The question was always the same:
“Do you think the market will go up?”Read More