The willingness of leaders in Washington to spend whatever is necessary, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s willingness to use unlimited resources to counter the economic dislocation, make it impossible for economic activity to descend into the chaos of the 1930s. Stimulus checks to individuals and forgivable loans to small businesses will limit the damage. Make no mistake, the damage will be acute and will linger. That lesson was taught us by The Great Depression. WWII spending proved the path necessary financially to beat the economic demon into submission.
More proposals keep coming forward. Nearly $3 trillion in stimulus spending is already passed and working its way into the hands of individuals and businesses. It is not enough and will run short. Congress knows it and keeps pumping more stimulus measures at every whiff of a slowing economy. How much more stimulus spending will come is anyone’s guess. All I know is nobody seems to want to rein in the excesses at this time. And that is probably a good thing. The 26% of GDP deficit in 1943 is only the worst year of many with large fiscal deficits in the early 1940s. The spending was insane back then and America thrived afterwards. With the money going into the hands of Americans (back then and now) there is no doubt in this accountant’s mind the economy will pass this painful speed bump reasonably quickly with far fewer casualties than if belated measures similar to 2008-9 were used; or worse, the reluctant policies of 1929-1932.Read More
Maybe today isn’t the ideal time to take the early retirement you planned. But the day is fast approaching. The pandemic will pass, economic activity will increase and the market will travel to new highs. Beginning retirement when the economy is at the beginning stages of a bull market allows for the longest period of growth before your budget is seriously challenged with declining asset prices.Read More
Restarting the economy is going to be more difficult than it was stopping it. A vigorous discussion on the topic is desperately needed as many feel talking about opening the economy is akin to reigniting the infection rate when in reality the discussion is needed to formulate an appropriate and workable plan.
Talking about restarting the economy is good policy. Shutting down large swaths of economic activity was necessary for public health. And for the most part it was a fairly easy process: governors gave the order and their state ground to a halt as people sheltered in place, giving COVID-19 no viable path to propagate. The same happened around the world. It is The Day the World Stopped.
The spread of COVID-19 had slowed and in many countries has all but stopped. Concerns the virus is picking up steam where social distancing is relaxed is still a real risk. However, policies designed to slow the spread of the virus appear to be working. Multiple medical therapies hold promise and a massive effort to develop a vaccine are in progress. A vaccine would be a game changer, but realistically that is still as much as 1 ½ years away before it becomes available. The economic price would be too high, and the resulting harm to human health from lack of services, too damaging to wait over a year before reopening the closed parts of the economy.Read More
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) is the attempt by Congress to reduce the economic dislocation caused by the current pandemic. Taxes play a key role in the Act, along with several economic stimulus policies.
Normally a new tax law requires time to figure out all the details. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is still looking for clarifications on several issues, some of which are addressed in the CARES Act. COVID-19 had pushed economic decline into overdrive. The American economy has never declined at such a pace. Businesses and individuals went from good economic conditions to millions unemployed and many businesses forced to close. A draconian stimulus package was required.
The CARES Act is $2.2 trillion of federal stimulus. With no time to iron out the details, rumors are flying. Normally reputable sources of information are struggling to get facts out. Misinformation is rampant. This post, along with the accompanying Facebook Live event, will outline the facts as they currently stand. The facts might change is some situations. I will correct those errors in this post periodically so you have a reliable resource. There are many instances where the only answer is: I don’t know. Because nobody does, even the people in charge of the programs.Read More
Rules of thumb are an easy way to quickly see where you stand financially. Once you reach 25X your spending in liquid net worth (the 4% rule presented as a multiple of spending) you are assumed to have enough to retire under the 4% rule, regardless your age.
However, as we are seeing with the current market turmoil, the simple rule of thumb has one fatal flaw. If you reached your 25X goal a few months ago and decided this was the time to step away from traditional labor, you now face a withdrawal rate from your index funds a third higher than expected. This will reduce the account value early in the distribution phase, lowering the total amount you can get from the investment over your lifetime.
Another rule of thumb is to keep 6 months of spending in cash in case you become unemployed. Under a normal job loss or economic decline this would be a reasonable policy to follow. Unemployment insurance can provide additional cushion to the 6-month cash reserve.
Black Swan events (unexpected negative economic events such as the housing crisis or pandemic) throw the whole rule of thumb out the window. Black Swan events do not happen often, but they do occur every decade or so. Looking back at U.S. history, it seems something always happens every decade to knock the markets lower and slow economic activity. The 2010s are the only decade to avoid that fate and 2020 seems to be making up for the oversight.Read More
The stock market is down, reflecting the dim prospects for companies trying to turn a profit in a quickly declining economy. Decisions need to be made while you are under heavy duress. Should you sell an investment, or maybe buy? Is early retirement or collecting Social Security early a good move? How does your business survive if it has been deemed non-essential? The financial decisions you make today will have consequences for years to come.Read More
Two major tax increases are about to crush middle class Americans. The first tax increase has already been passed into law and will soon go into effect. The second massive tax increase is more sinister. The amount of the increase has yet to be determined, but we can get a good idea how much will be pried from your wallet if you don’t take steps to defend your wealth.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) lowered taxes for the vast majority of individuals and regular corporations. There were a few losers. Taxpayers with high state and local taxes (SALT) found their deductions declining faster than rates fell causing a sharp pain behind their left eye on April 15th.
Other taxpayers feeling the pain of a tax increase include truckers, sales people, artists and others with work related expenses. Unreimbursed employee business expenses were eliminated. Truckers (and others) no longer can deduct their work expenses. The TCJA hurt a large number of hard working Americans. Even the mortgage interest deduction was slightly curtailed. Not as many felt that sting, but all the same, the TCJA was uneven in reducing taxpayer liabilities.
Regular corporations saw the biggest benefit. Corporations now have a flat 21% tax rate. Except for corporations with less than $50,000 in profits, this was a tax cut.Read More
In 1968 Nick Murray had to sell investments the hard way. He met most clients in their home. The tool of choice was the mutual fund. Most people he sat with were hard working people, but unsophisticated investors. Fee-based advisors were rare in those days for the small accounts families had. Fees were high and people were risk adverse. To top it off, the market was having bouts of volatility, suffering a noticeable decline even to those who didn’t follow the market on a regular basis.
It was in this environment Nick Murray had to convince his clients and potential clients the best course of action for them. Investing in mutual funds came at a steep cost. Loads (aka sales fees) were as high as 8.75%. 91.25% of your money went to work right out of the gate trying to get back to the even water mark.
Young families had to consider equities for at least a portion of their portfolio if they were ever to have enough money for a comfortable retirement, and Nick Murray knew it. The high fees were one issue; the market another. The question was always the same:
“Do you think the market will go up?”Read More