How to Lose a Million Dollars in a Day

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There is an insidious side to the FIRE (financial independence, retire early) community nobody wants to talk about. I was aware of this issue for some time as the owner of an accounting practice. What I found most disturbing is how blatantly bloggers and talking heads in the demographic keep giving advice that will lead to tears.

It is not if, it is when it will happen. If you follow the advice of this blog and others in the genre you will eventually suffer a million dollar loss day.

I have broken bread with these people and tipped a beer or three as this issue has been discussed and to date I never found anyone to give a damn.




The Bad Advice You Must Avoid

It is insane for bloggers to preach what they do. By encouraging people to save as much as half (sometimes even more) of their income and then drop it into a low cost index fund is guaranteed to cause massive financial problems. If you are one of those said bloggers: Shame on you!

Once you start down the slippery slope of frugality and living within your means the die is cast. The worst part is you will NEVER outperform the market! Index funds will MATCH the market, minus the extremely low fees.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happens when you consistently drop money into a low cost investment geared to match market returns. A few years later you have a nice pile of money. What a headache!

By encouraging young people to take such steps is borderline illegal! There aughta be a law. A decade of this behavior is one thing, but before you know it these young people have a few decades behind them (like your favorite accountant) and then the manure really hits the fan.

Do you know what thirty years of investing half your income in index funds can do to you? That’s right! First you blow past a million and before you know it the seven figure account is in the rearview mirror. It sounds impossible, but this is only with “average” stock market returns! And the index fund isn’t taking hardly a thing in fees. You are double screwed, my friend. Double screwed.

You see, what goes up will eventually come down and come down hard. If you had a $100 invested and the investment went down to $90 in a market correction, you lost $10. Not too bad, I guess. God forbid, we get one of those gut wrenching days where the market declines 5% or even more. Imagine losing $20 of your hard earned money in a bear market!

(Well, actually, you didn’t lose any money. The market fluctuates a bit now and again so the ups and downs mean nothing unless you are in the market to sell. But I digress.)

Now think about the same scenario if you have a $1 million portfolio. Holy catfish, Batman! You just took a $100,000 groin shot. Time to get out of Dodge.

But it gets so much worse. Take it from your favorite accountant; I am living the following eventuality. You see, I started young and was scared witless so I saved everything and stuffed it into the market. Starting with a few thousand to my name at 18 I managed to amass a couple hundred thousand four years later. (Thank you early 80s bull market. You da man!) I quit life to read books all day until a certain young lady forced me to marry her (and she wasn’t even pregnant, I swear!). I fought like crazy, but could not get away. I still have scars. See!

Well, a respectable married man works a job, dang it. So the investment machinery went back into action. A short stint as a working man convinced me a job was not the course I wished to travel in life so I started a business where there was plenty of time to read.

That was the stupidest thing I ever did! Now my portfolio was growing from market gains and my new investments. In the last year my behavior pushed me into eight figure net worth territory. I’m still trying to figure out how a dumb schmuck from the backwoods of Wisconsin pulled this off without bumping off a bank or three. (I didn’t do it!)

Criminal activity aside, I cannot avoid the problem we started this post with. A simple (and normal) 10% market correction will cut a temporary $1 million hole in my hide, ahem, net worth. If the S&P has one of those stomach turning days where things head south by over 5% I’m dead meat!

My current net worth has me under 8%. That means if the market has an 8% down day I’m out a cool million.

And it keeps getting worse. Soon the portfolio will grow so large that when the President passes wind and coughs at the same time the 14 point decline in the Dow will crush my net worth by seven figures in an afternoon! Way to go, Mr. President!

Alternatives to the Awful Advice

There is help, my spend thrifty friends. As your favorite accountant I offer, two, not one, but two solutions to the issue above.

The last thing you want to do is end up like me with all that filthy money just dying to cut your heart out. I find it hard to get out of bed most days now.




Here are the two solutions from your friend who has lived this life of debauchery.

1.) Spend all your money before it gets a chance to grow. I know it means you will be forced to work a dead-end job you hate till your walker gets in the way, but think of the alternative. Do you really want to live a month of life where you tinkled a million bucks into the sewer? I didn’t think so. No go out there and buy those $300 sneakers you had your eye on. The blinking lights are fancy.

2.) If you are a sick puppy like me and hate shopping *whatever* and end up saving lots of money you still have an out. For God’s sake don’t drop the cash into an index fund, whatever you do. That is the first step to a $1 million bloodletting. Instead, open one of those fancy savings accounts at the bank that throw off a massive .01% interest annually.

If you follow my advice I can assure you the day your friends reading these crazy blogs take a $1 million haircut, you will be sitting pretty at your minimum wage job laughing your tail off.

SUCKERS!

Fun Time is Over; Time to Get Serious

We had some fun above with a serious issue few people think of. The larger your investment portfolio the more normal market declines become really big numbers even when it is a small percentage; numbers that have been known to cause a rash.

A simple and regular market correction will reduce your net worth/portfolio by $100,000 or more with a low seven figure account. Losing $100,000 is bit hard to take when less than a decade ago your net worth wasn’t even that big!

I told the truth above. Bloggers, me included, tell the truth about building massive wealth. What nobody talks about is what to do once you HAVE the wealth. Is it back to the investment advisors you were warned about all along?

Managing $10,000 or a million or ten million is nearly the same. The only difference is at the lower end where you need some liquid cash for an emergency. Most of your money will be in equities and equities like to go real high and then play rollercoaster periodically to shake out the weak hands.

It would be a dirty shame if you worked so hard to build wealth to the level of financial independence only to fall through the sieve when the market does what it always does.

Don’t listen to the crazy accountant writing above advising spending all your money or saving only in the bank at 0% interest. There is a better way.

The first step is to prepare. A market correction is defined as a 10% or greater decline from the market high or recent top. These guys show up every 3-5 years or so. It has been a bit since we saw one of these animals. Don’t be fooled. Corrections can be weird. Sometimes they trick us into a false sense of security by hiding for 7 or more years. They know they are more painful when they do it that way.

Bear markets are defined as a 20% or larger decline from a recent market top. These nasty devils educate the crowds usually at least once a decade. Yes, I know we are overdue.

Then we get the truly Armageddon style realignment of asset prices where the indexes are half the recent high. We had two of them in the first decade of this millennium, but that is unusual.

OMG! Warren Buffett is a Mustachian!

You must be mentally prepared for any of these declines in market value. We could go years before one of these declines arrive or it could start tomorrow morning. Nobody has ever proved they can predict market declines with accuracy so the only option is to stay invested at all times.

Protecting your money means preparing your mind. It’s all between the ears! Once you know it WILL happen you will not be scared into selling (AHHHHHH, the world is ending!!!) when we are enjoying a sale on investments. If you get good at this you will buy during these trying times and profit handsomely.

The best solution is to invest whenever money is available and always let it ride: up market or down.

Be different. When people scream, “The sky is falling!” you back up the truck and load up. Shirts are on sale half off, oh, I mean the companies selling the shirts are on sale half off.

Train yourself to not bury your head in the sand. I frequently tell clients not to look at their accounts when the market is in turmoil. Out of sight; out of mind. This is wrong. I say it so less astute investors, present company accepted, so they don’t destroy a lifetime of hard work building their nest egg to destroy it in an afternoon.

With some time and a bit of luck, you might one day be able to say, “I lost a million dollars today, and frankly, I don’t give a damn.”



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Keith Schroeder

11 Comments

  1. Andy on September 15, 2017 at 7:29 am

    Another excellent article. Stay the course! Stay the course! Stay the course!

    The 401k and the Roth IRA’s are set the pull from our checking account on paydays. Whenever we have extra money after bills, living expenses and fun money we plow it into our taxable account after the Roth accounts are maxed out.

    We lived through 2008 and it was scary. My boss was walked out of his job in 2009 and I had to make sure I had added value to my employer. Scary times indeed. I didn’t touch our investments because I was ignorant of investing at the time. Not because I knew to stay the course. Ignorance is bliss? We’ll see how I handle the next big correction.

    • Keith Schroeder on September 15, 2017 at 8:15 am

      It is the one piece of advice that will guide your life: focus. “Stay the course” is the focus of investing. Those who do it win; those who don’t won’t.

      I hope my humorous take is a guide when the next decline happens. If people come back here scared, but leave knowing time will heal all wounds, then I have done my job.

      Have a great weekend.

  2. Jason@WinningPersonalFinance on September 15, 2017 at 7:43 am

    This is fantastic! I have a new life goal of saying “I lost a million dollars today, and frankly, I don’t give a damn.” I just started publishing a new series of posts on risk and investing and this post is in exactly the same vain. If your are making positive expected value decisions and can afford to lose the money at risk, you will win.

    • Keith Schroeder on September 15, 2017 at 8:17 am

      Look forward to the series, Jason.

      BTW, humor goes a long way in building wealth. Hope I made you smile.

  3. Steveark on September 15, 2017 at 9:22 am

    That was great and sometimes I actually feel that way when my net worth takes a big swing with the market. I work a day or two a week at retirement side gigs for entertainment and though I am not seeking income I make six figures a year for my very part time ventures. When I see my investments loose $40,000 in a single day it makes that $100k income seem kind of meaningless!

    • Keith Schroeder on September 15, 2017 at 9:33 am

      And nobody warns us going in about this, Steveark. It is hard to believe there are still uncovered issues relating to personal finance considering how much finance is covered. FYI: It never gets easier because the numbers keep getting bigger! This market correction had paper losses of $100,000; the next correction has paper losses of a quarter of a million because the account is now bigger. These are wealthy people problems for sure. My goal is to get people thinking appropriately before the boom drops so they don’t lose the ability to enjoy those massive temporary paper losses.

  4. WealthyDoc on September 15, 2017 at 9:48 am

    Hilarious. I love it. You are right I have to stop giving out such bad advice. Wealth is a real pain.
    In 1987 and 2000, I did fine. In 2008 I must admit I freaked out a bit. Not a full selling and panic mind you but more than I would have liked. I shifted to a more conservative asset allocation once my assets rebounded. That probably cost me some upside growth – but I can live with that. I hope I have nerves of steel for the next crash, but likely not. I’ve started monitoring my number of shares rather than the current market price total. That way I can keep adding to the total number of shares no matter what Mr. Market currently thinks.

    • Keith Schroeder on September 15, 2017 at 10:00 am

      Ah-hah!!! A guilty one steps forward.

      You bring up a powerful point I missed, Doc. Focus on the number of shares instead of the account value when things look dark. It’s kind of like heights; look to the horizon, but whatever you do, Don’t look down! I talked about the # of shares thing in previous posts, but can’t remember the exact post. When it comes to index funds, focus on accumulating shares. It’s more fun, never goes down unless you sell, and has the nasty side affect of making you wealthy.

  5. Mrs.Wow on September 16, 2017 at 5:57 pm

    Solid advice! Investing is like hydroplaning or skidding on ice while driving. Most people tend to want to quickly slam on the brakes or turn away from the direction the car is going. But the right thing to do is actually turn right into the direction you are headed. During a market downturn, most people want to sell their stocks, pull their money out and run the other way, when in actuality you need to sink your heels in and pump money straight back in. Seems counterintuitive, but it is the only way to make it out unscathed.

    • Keith Schroeder on September 16, 2017 at 6:33 pm

      I like that. A perfect way to look at market turmoil!

  6. Robert Hazelwood on September 17, 2017 at 9:30 am

    Could be your best article to date. Kudos my WI mate.

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